Flu Pandemic: The Risks

 

 

The No1 Global health risk

The World Health Organisation now rates a possible Human Flu Pandemic as the No1 global health risk. Our Parents and Grandparents may recall previous Flu Pandemics; the last was 1968 and was preceded by Pandemics in 1957 and 1918. In the case of the 1918 pandemic it left over 50 million people dead and lasted over 18 months. All of these pandemics have originated from a variant of the flu virus found in birds which subsequently mutated to effect humans and many experts now agree that we are overdue another human flu pandemic. The current notorious H5N1 bird flu strain has infected such a huge proportion of the world's bird population that it is the most likely source for a new pandemic.

 

How can a person catch Bird Flu?

At present the H5N1 bird flu virus can only be contracted through close contact with an infected bird, carcass or faeces. The virus has not yet developed the capability of human to human infection. However the greatest concern for scientists is the possibility that a person already suffering from ordinary Human Flu will contract H5N1 Bird Flu allowing the two viruses to combine creating a strain that would easily transmit between people.

 

How would the virus spread between people? Once the virus develops the capability of human to human transmission the virus would be passed from one person to another by minute water droplets being expelled through coughing and sneezing. (See illustration)   The virus enters your body via your mouth and nostrils through general inhalation or through the soft tissue of your eye.   A secondary hazard is that these minute water droplets gather on surfaces and can remain infectious for several hours. If your hands touch these surfaces they will become infected and it's a matter of time before you will touch your face and the virus will enter your body.       "The infected droplets can remain infectious for several hours on surfaces such as seats and handles etc. and will infect your hands on contact."                 Dr John Oxford, Virologist

 

Is there a vaccination against Pandemic Flu?

On current estimates no vaccine will be available for general use until 6 months after the start of the pandemic. Scientists will first have to identify the exact strain of the mutated virus before production can begin. This can only happen once the Pandemic has begun.

 

"On current international estimates, the vaccine for a bird flu pandemic will take at least four to six months to produce"

        UK Department of Health

 

"Because the vaccine needs to closely match the pandemic virus, large-scale commercial production will not start until the new virus has emerged and a pandemic has been declared. Current global production capacity falls far short of the demand expected during a pandemic"

        World Health Organisation

 

"No vaccines are expected to be widely available until several months after the start of a pandemic"

        World Health Organisation

 

 

 

6 MONTH RISK PERIOD

 

 

So the risk period is 6 months?

From the qualified quotes above it leaves us in no doubt that from the start of a Flu Pandemic to the general distribution of a vaccination will take 6 Months. The pandemic strain will first need to be identified, production started on a vaccine and then the logistics of distributing this vaccine.

 

What would be the impact of a Human Flu Pandemic?

Every year in the UK seasonal flu causes illness to 5 to 10% of the population, mainly the elderly and very young resulting in 12,000 deaths. The UK Department of Health estimate the range of infection in a pandemic to be between 25 to 50 % of the UK population. Worryingly, if a human flu pandemic develops from the H5N1 (Bird Flu) virus, its effects will be most severe in young fit working adults and children. These staggering pandemic infection rates will potentially leave unprepared organisations completely paralysed by the absenteeism of key employees. The European Commission for Economic Affairs offers the following guidelines for anticipated absenteeism. Depending on the severity of the pandemic, absenteeism will range from 25% to 40% of the workforce with the average employee taking at least 2 to 3 weeks absence from work over a period of 3 months (this is over and above normal rates of absenteeism)

 

The SARS crisis of 2003 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)offers a precursor for a modern day flu pandemic. Organisations that provided robust preparedness plans for their staff discovered that the vast majority responded extremely positively to the crisis and developed a heightened commitment for business continuity.